Guidance on scenario analysis 

This document provides guidance for organisations who choose to use scenario analysis to explore the possible consequences of nature loss and climate change, the ways in which governments, markets and society might respond, and the implications of these uncertainties for business strategy and financial planning. It includes a collection of practical tools, templates and techniques, in addition to general guidance. This guidance supports organisations in conducting a qualitative scenario workshop, focusing the exercise on testing, refining and stretching their thinking, planning and decision-making. 

To support scenario analysis, we have created a downloadable worksheet:
Download the scenario toolbox

Key focus areas

  • General guidance on scenario analysis 
  • Guidance for running a participatory scenario workshop  
  • Templates to be used during a scenario exercise 
  • Scenario tools that can be tailored to the organisation’s needs 
  • Examples of more advanced scenario tools 
  • Findings and insights from four scenario analysis case studies 

Key outcomes

  • Overview of the role of scenarios in the TNFD recommendations and LEAP approach  
  • Building blocks for scenario analysis 
  • Tools and approaches for scenario analysis 
  • Example scenario narratives